It’s important to win in Rotterdam.
The initial favorites failed in the rankings
The new Champions League format has some strange textures. Let your imagination run wild. Initially, based on 50,000 simulations, they got the tournament favorite, Manchester City. The probability of their victory was estimated at 25.3%. Next come the current cup holders, Real Madrid, with 18.2%. Currently, ahead of the seventh round matches, Guardiola’s team is in 24th place. Last place to qualify for the playoffs. And Real are 22nd, but can also improve their position if they beat lowly Salzburg at home.
It will be difficult for the favorites to finish in the leading group. But Bayern, to whom the supercomputer gave 4.1%, can today move from the twelfth match to the top five. With a good goal difference, they can become third in the table after Liverpool and Barcelona, whose chances of winning the Champions League season were also rated as very low. It’s difficult to make predictions in a tournament where even Bayern have lost twice. They lost to the Catalans and suffered a 4:1 humiliation in Spain. And they lost to Emery’s Aston Villa.
Did Kompany sacrifice his results in individual matches for the sake of a higher goal? The answer lies in Bayern’s statistics. In Birmingham, only Duran scored, the Colombian striker came on successfully. World champion Emiliano Martinez had to make seven saves compared to two saves from world champion Neuer, who made a mistake. There was also an unusual match in Barcelona. Bayern had 60% of the ball against former coach Flick’s team. Raphinha’s hat-trick and Lewandowski’s goal were a lesson, but the Germans were not broken.
Today, when many rich clubs are experiencing difficulties and defeats in various tournaments, Munich was able to calm down and began to win. Bayern beat Benfica PSG and Shakhtar. The toughest opponents failed to score many goals. But the Parisians were dominated at equal strength before Dembélé was eliminated. And they did not concede 4 goals from the Portuguese “eagles”, like Barcelona did yesterday. Everyone in the Champions League except Liverpool has lost points. Bayern’s defeats do not prevent us from seeing the big picture and saving strengths.
Bayern have seven Champions League winners
As shown by the successes of Real Madrid, who reached the final thanks to their character during the years when everything went well, experience is extremely important in European competitions. Even in the neighboring Europa League, Sevilla have often won, relying on their ability to fight back in knockout matches. Bayern cannot be called incredibly successful in such battles. Almost always at the decisive moment, they find an excuse not to reach the final. There has been only one exception in recent years. Then Flick beat PSG in the decisive match. But the Company takes these failures into account.
Bayern still has Kimmich, Davies, Neuer, Gnabry, Goretzka, Müller and Coman. Seven players have won with Flick. Defenders Upamecano and Kim arrived later. Musiala debuted after the success of Flick. And Kane was one of the last to join us. But we are talking about top footballers. With optimal lineup and condition, Bayern can easily maintain winning streaks. We started with six straight wins. Kompany then experienced his first setbacks. And he responded with a new series of successes – seven victories after the defeat at Barcelona.
Bayern were recently eliminated from the German Cup. Neuer received the first red card of his career. They lost to Bayer Alonso, another season leader in the Champions League. There was also a miss away against Mainz. Bayern have fallen into the classic giant trap. We had the ball, but we got a shot on target. The opponent had four attempts. The 1:2 defeat allowed us to fuel the Bundesliga championship intrigue. But the favorites of the season opened a new series of winning matches.
Leipzig and Hoffenheim received five goals each from Bayern. Coach Kompany’s team doesn’t always have as much success on the road. In Rotterdam, Feyenoord should be played masterfully, but the Belgian coach of Bayern knows the opponent’s strengths well. Vincent watched Manchester City’s match against the Dutch. Guardiola’s team led 3:0, but ended up in a draw. The Germans, after defeats against Aston Villa and Barcelona, cannot follow the example of the Manchester club. Today, only victory will satisfy.
In Munich, many people need success in a cool tournament
When it comes to Kane, any trophy suits him. The experienced England striker has not won any titles at senior level. The German Cup flew away again and Bayer and Stuttgart competed in the Super Cup. A bet on silverware in the Bundesliga, where Bayern are four points ahead of Leverkusen. Kompany also wants to go far in the Champions League. Here, after Feyenoord, who are also in the playoffs, Bayern will face the underdog Slovan.
In this Champions League, the Germans have scored 9 goals against Dinamo Zagreb. It is unlikely that in the last round, if Kompany uses rotation, they will repeat an incredible result. But the fact that in a difficult season for many giants, Bayern has the strength of such performances, makes them appreciate them more than the algorithm for evaluating favorites did in the fall. Now the supercomputer is betting on Liverpool’s success. The English have seven wins in seven matches, a perfect result after the match against Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen.
Salah is now one of the ten most prolific strikers in the history of the Champions League. Kane isn’t there for obvious reasons; he missed seasons with Tottenham. But Thomas Müller has four more goals than Mohamed. Looking at the statistics, Bayern are in vain underestimated. Next to PSG and Barcelona in terms of quality of chances in the domestic league, although they have played slightly fewer matches in the league than the Catalans in La Liga. The Munich club is first in the top 5 in terms of goals scored. Bayern are also the best when it comes to hitting their opponents.
The Germans are also first in shots and ball possession. It makes sense to admit an error in assessment. The choice in favor of Kompany, who had no experience coaching teams of big stars, was met with skepticism. But the Belgian proved to be intelligent. First in the Bundesliga. He will be among the leaders of the Champions League if he beats the Dutch and the Slovaks. In just one match, Bayern can do something weird. In this they resemble goalkeeper Neuer. But Manuel, like his team, has ten times as many incredibly successful matches.
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